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A few observations on Mr Market from an Old Timer
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I'm 57 and long retired. I've been in the markets for almost thirty years, twenty of those years as a professional (hedge funds, PE and a bit of investment banking). I've always had a value mindset and thus I've been skeptical of growth-related hype. So a few observations... worth exactly what you're paying for them.
At the peak of the 2000 internet bubble the top-10 companies (by market cap) in the S&P were worth 10.1% of then-global GDP. Which was an outrageous valuation at the time. Well, today that same figure is almost 17%. Yup, almost 70% higher. What does it mean? I don't know. But it probably means something.
I've witnessed three huge bubbles during my career: the Internet Bubble, the Everything Bubble I (prior to the Financial Crisis), and now the Everything Bubble II. I have never seen anything like the current bubble - bullishness in all sectors just off the charts. Caution trading at the biggest discount I can ever remember. What does it mean? I don't know. But it probably means something.
My two biggest concerns with current market conditions are: (1) so much of the current conditions has been monetary driven - between the Fed, fiscal stimulus, and the other Central Banks' stimulus, there's just so much cash sloshing around the global jello bowl that it all has to go somewhere (and that somewhere has clearly been financial assets), and (2) the folks setting the prices in the most speculative assets don't appear to own the instruments they're trading in - they're just tossing them around hoping the "number go up" paradigm will never capitulate. The only conviction is that someone will pay more for it tomorrow. This has always been a feature of markets, of course. But now it appears to be the only feature where a lot of the most prominent assets are concerned: Nvidia, Tesla, Bitcoin, etc. (Tesla's entire market cap, for example, turns over every 30 trading days on average.) What does it mean? I don't know. But it probably means something.
I've seen some crazy market conditions. But this takes the cake. If worldly wisdom teaches one anything, however, it's that things can always get crazier. We live in interesting times.
Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.
Top Comment: When I grow up, I want to be like u/slazengerx ... long retired by 57.
VR and AR displays: market share of micro OLED, AMOLED, microLED expected to grow
Main Post: VR and AR displays: market share of micro OLED, AMOLED, microLED expected to grow
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ITRI website
They expect Laser Beam Scanning (LBS) to triple in total numbers. The market share is stable. Maybe this means that they don't expect a HoloLens 3 with LBS on the market in 2024? Because if there is a HL3 with LBS, they would probably triple the number of HMDs themselves. But others will adopt LBS, too. So maybe these others will partially replace the HL in market share.
WideBet9612, when we talked about this I didn't remember that this here includes VR and AR, while the other chart was AR only. That's why HoloLens 2 is the market leader in their AR headset chart with 27% but LBS is only 3% here.
SEA Ltd: The Prodigal Son - Is Mr Market Stupid?
Main Post: SEA Ltd: The Prodigal Son - Is Mr Market Stupid?
Top Comment: Based on Yahoo data: The last four years at least have had negative EBIT. The last quarter has more than a 80 p/e ratio. It's not a growth company if the last quarter is at all representative with only 5.2% YoY revenue growth. It doesn't appear to have a significant moat in either of its primary businesses or a consistently profitable business model. I'm actually surprised it's as high as it is.
Stock market invest
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Better invest in tesla Mr Beast
Top Comment: Better invest in tesla Mr Beast ยท Be the first to share what you think